At the heart of the previous "World Order" were global structures that no longer prevail. The version of that order generated after WWII – based around institutions like the UN, WTO, NATO, EU &c – is now well beyond its limits and has already been replaced by what we call Three Spheres: East, West and Digital. Not only has the East – China, India, Japan &c – already separated its own strategic plans from those of the West but a new force that we call the Digital Sphere has developed as a potential rival to both the East and West Spheres. All three of them have global reach and their rivalry could result in serious conflicts that should be avoided. Understanding these new structures is required both for success as well as for avoiding considerable risks going forward.
The three Spheres have their basis in different technologies of literacy, writing, and storage (namely, Logograms, Alphabet and Code) and they are directed towards different ultimate goals – none of which correspond to the earlier "one-world" paradigm. Woven together by geo-stationary satellites, beaming common television-based communications to everyone, the earlier dream of a world all drinking Coca-Cola and wearing Levis is no longer believeable. The previous goal of multi-national consumption, supported by "democratic" regimes all pursuing "capitalist" economies now has been widely abandoned. China has made it clear this is not their future and its neighbors have reacted accordingly. New currency/wealth models, driven by technologies like block-chain &c, have now become headline material – leaving financial experts dazzed and confused. And this is only the beginning.
This paradigm-shift has been underway at least since the dot.com bubble of the 1990s, the collapse of which signalled the falling-down of the previous Humpty Dumpty of a "world order." No amount of headlines in the Economist (e.g. an analogy to "all the king's horses and all the king's men") can put it back together again. Brexit is a direct result of these changes. So was the election of Donald Trump as President (and the suspension of "term-limits" for Xi Jinping). Indeed, so has been the rise of NFTs (Non-Fungable Tokens) and the phenomenon of "meme-stocks." "Disinformation" is a result of the loss of authority of mass media, reflected in a sweeping change in where people (particularly young people) get their "news." Public-opinion polling is widely recognized as broken. Academic credentials no longer attract the "smart twenty-somethings." Whatever balance there was between what Jayne Jacobs called the "commercial" and "guardian" moral-codes has been lost. We now live in a very different world. One that we struggle to understand.
Add to this the rise of the robots and the Digital Sphere. Yes, humanity is a very resourceful and flexible species -- capable of adapting to an enormous range of environments. Our psychology is particularly "plastic," as we continually remake the world to our liking. But while EXO has not given up on humanity's prospects, many others have. For the first time in human history, there are now massive resources devoted to replacing humans. No military wants humans to die in battle – yet battles will still be fought. And many corporations are anxious to replace their "workforces." Robots to the rescue. Not satisfied with a century of (largely failed) attempts to "engineer" human behaviors and attitudes, today there are ambitious efforts underway to transition from biology to a hybrid bio-technical cyborg "species." For many that is not enough and they won't be satisfied until biology is totally eliminated and a result is created that can defeat death and become immortal. This is not just another attack-of-the-looms, as confronted by 19th-century weavers. This is a group of humans using the pinnacle of human skills to undermine humanity itself.
What was once science-fiction is now science-fact. Strategic plans based on hoped-for stability in these structures are likely to miss crucial developments. Exogenous factors impinge on us from every direction. We are convinced that there are no "black swans," just people not paying attention. EXO is prepared to help our clients assess both the opportunities and challenges involved. Protection of existing wealth as well as generating new wealth both need this kind of assistance.
As Dorothy put it in the Wizard of Oz, "No Toto, I don't believe we are in Kansas anymore."